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Markets
Monday
Feb012016

The Fed Is Not Hiking: Risk Assets To Perform

The landscape of global monetary policy is changing. In late 2015 we had the Fed hiking, signalling more to come, the ECB holding back on fresh QE and even the BOJ, which has engaged in more easing than any other central bank in history, was sitting on its hands.

That tune has changed.

The BoJ moved to negative rates this week. The Fed didn’t hike and signalled that they aren’t going to hike in the short term. The ECB is making noises about expanding its QE programs. In this article we explore direction of monetary policy going forward and its implications for financial markets.

The Fed Was Dovish This Week

This week the FOMC statement was very clear about highlighting the risks stemming from the recent instability in global markets and widening of credit spreads, saying they are “closely monitoring” the future impact this will have on the economy. The Fed had stated previously that the risks to the economic outlook were “balanced” but they are now “assessing the implications” of recent developments “for the balance of risks to the outlook”. This is a step towards the Fed saying that the balance of risks are to the downside, even though they are not quite there yet. If the Fed sees the balance of risks to the downside then they will not increase interest rates.

Weakening economic data was acknowledged, a move away from previous statements that said that the economy was expanding “at a moderate pace”, and this weakening was confirmed by Friday’s softer GDP number. Yellen also noted spending and investment were increasing at “moderate” rather than “solid” rates, but did note that, “labor market conditions improved further” referring to the stronger NFP print in January. Strong employment data has been a theme of last two years. The Fed’s target there has been met, and therefore strong employment does not add pressure on the Fed to hike; it’s now all about inflation and financial conditions. The Fed pointed to disinflationary pressure directly, saying they expect it “to remain low in the near term, in part because of the further declines in energy prices”.

Fed Cannot “Surprise Hike”

Time and time again the Fed has stressed the cautious nature of this tightening cycle. They have made it clear that market stability is critical to being able to lift rates from zero without negatively impacting the economy. Therefore the Fed will not hike without the financial markets expecting such a hike, or the hike would cause unnecessary volatility in asset prices, particularly in bond and interest rate markets. Currently pricing implies a 16% chance of a hike in March, 22% by April and 33% by June. Even September less than 50% priced for a hike (data taken from the CME FedWatch tool and Fed Funds Futures Pricing).

Without the market pricing more like 75% for a hike the Fed simply will not go.

In our view the Fed closed the door to a March hike with their statement this week. The probability of a hike in April would need to more than triple for us to be persuaded that the Fed may indeed hike then. That leaves us looking at June, which, whilst low at 33%, could still see a Fed hike if conditions improve. However in the short term we can say with a high degree of certainty that the Fed will not be increasing interest rates again.

Gold Prices Supported By Fed

When the Fed hiked in December and market pricing at for tighter monetary policy peaked, gold could not break below $1050. Having been gold bears through 2013, 2014 and 2015, we exited the bear camp not long after the December FOMC, saying “This decline [in gold] continued until the rate hike was announced. Following this gold initially moved lower, but then began to recover and regained ground on Friday, and has the potential to continue this recovery with no bearish catalyst to keep the price falling.”

Technically $1050 is now a massive support level, and is not going to break with the Fed on hold. Short term we believe gold prices will continue to move higher targeting $1150. At that level the risks are more symmetric, since it will take a major event for gold to break its major downtrend resistance around $1180.

BoJ Takes Easing To 3D

Late this week the BoJ today surprised the market by announcing that it would adopt a negative discount rate, in order to counter downside risks to growth and inflation. The BoJ is prepared to take rates even further negative if need be. The bank noted that this a third dimension to its already aggressive easing stance. The first dimension is the quantity of money, with the base already increasing at JPY 8Otrn a year. The second is asset purchases, mainly JGBs, but also JREIT and ETFs. Now they have a third dimension, negative rates, which they can utilize in addition to be the first two.

Given how linked the major global economies are, it is rare for the monetary policy of the major central banks to move in different directions. Euro, USD, and Sterling all strengthened versus the Yen following this action. The currency strengthening shifts the outlook for monetary policy for those currencies, as currency strength needs to be combated with a more accommodative stance to prevent the stronger currency impacting exports, and therefore growth. Thus in an environment where one central bank is easing monetary policy, the others are (at the margin) more inclined to ease also.

Potential ECB Easing

Flying slight more under the radar than the actions of the Fed and BoJ this week, let us not forget that Mario Draghi signalled last week that the European Central Bank is prepared to embark on a fresh round of monetary stimulus as soon as March. Draghi said the ECB would “review and possibly reconsider” its stance at its next meeting. The Euro fell 1 cent that day to 1.08 and European equities gained 2%.

The recent rhetoric of the Fed and actions by the BoJ add weight on the ECB to act. Whilst equities may have stabilized the underlying condition of the European economy is still far from ideal and deflationary risks are still present. We expect the ECB to act and moderately increase their QE program, accompanied by strong language suggesting they will do more if required.

Risk On

The shift in global monetary policy to a more accommodative stance implies “risk on” for financial markets. Risk assets should perform now after a brutal month, implying equities to move higher, volatility to decrease and some relief in hard hit sectors such as high yield. We went long S&P call options this week and expect the rally in stocks to continue for another 3%-5%, targeting 2000 in S&P.

China Devaluation Risk After New Year

Chinese New Year is unlikely to see the Yuan devalued with most Asian markets half closed and therefore liquidity being drastically reduced. The removes one of the year's drivers of risk off, at least for now, so we are comfortable being long equities here. However after Chinese New Year we will reassess, since further devaluation is likely in our view and this could send wobbles through financial markets again, abruptly ending the “risk on” tone.

Some have argued that the market action this week means Yuan devaluation is less likely. We disagree. Whilst equities in freefall is somewhat of a red light for further Yuan devaluation, (since China doesn’t wish to de-stabilize their own market, or the global scene, more than is necessary) a recovery in stocks turns the light back to orange. The BoJ action arguably puts the light right back on to green, with another major Asian economy actively trying to devalue their currency, why wouldn’t China follow suit?

Therefore before Chinese markets come back after their New Year we will likely exit our longs as the risk of further devaluation increases. For now we are content to stay long a ride the bounce, we are simply noting we view this move as a bounce not a major turnaround.

Trading Themes

The Fed on hold, BoJ going to negative rates, potential ECB easing and a temporary respite from Yuan devaluation are supportive of risk assets. Equities should bounce here and 1850 in the S&P will hold. Therefore we favour selling medium term put spreads with strikes equivalent to 1800-1850 and buying short dated, high gamma calls. Volatility wise we favour a lower VIX and steeper VIX curve.

Gold has big support at $1050 and whilst we are bullish short term we are not expecting an aggressive, extended rally. Therefore we favour selling near term OTM put spreads. If you wish to find out what these trades are and gain access to our model portfolio, please subscribe via either of the buttons below.

 

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Thursday
Jan282016

FOMC Dovish: Gold to Go Higher and Equities to Bounce

The worsening of financial conditions this year led markets to price in rates to remain unchanged at the January FOMC meeting, with many speculating the Fed to deliver a dovish statement. This has now been realised. Language used described that the FOMC recognised that economic activity had slowed and that inflationary pressures and expectations had declined further. As a result, it will now take an improvement in financial market conditions for the Fed to hike again at their next meeting, which is in March.

Markets are currently only pricing in a 25% probability of a hike in March. Yet, the Fed has indicated that their March meeting will hold a rate increase if conditions recover. This means that markets believe there is only a quarter chance of the market and economic situation improving. We agree with this for the key reason that there is unlikely to be a catalyst to improve conditions enough over the next two months.

Potential Positive Catalysts

The payrolls print at the beginning of January was particularly strong, showing upward revisions for the previous two months and brining the three months average up to 284,000 new jobs a month. However, markets failed to react positively to this data. The continued risk off tone despite employment strength indicates that markets believe other factors are much more important in the current economic climate. This means that future payrolls prints are also unlikely to have a positive effect.

Although employment data may not have the potential to be a catalyst for better conditions, growth may. However, the next GDP report, released this Friday, is expected to show soft economic performance. Meaning that growth as a whole is unlikely to have a positive effect over the coming months. 

Considering inflation, there is little to be optimistic about. Oil continues to stay close to the lows while other commodities, such as copper, also show weakness. These factors unlikely to drive costs higher, and the lack of expansion in the oil industry flows over to other support sectors, such as the industrials. Collectively the inflationary pressures from these factors are unlikely to improve.

Longer Term Macro Risks

There is also the longer term effects of China’s currency devaluation to consider. This has kept the US dollar at the highs, making exports less competitive. Therefore there is the potential for this to have a yet to be seen negative effect on the US economy that would see data weaken and thus drag markets lower again.

Therefore we do not believe there is a major catalyst that can improve the situation enough in the coming months to justify a rate hike. This means the Fed will likely have to delay hiking at the March meeting and continue to deliver a dovish message, as they did this week.

There is the possibility for a hike at the April FOMC meeting. However, it is unlikely that the Fed would hike at a meeting without a press conference after delaying hiking for two meetings. A statement lacks the depth to assure markets of the reasoning behind market conditions being too poor to hike for two meetings, and then suddenly improving enough in a month to require a hike. Accordingly, we believe the Fed will be unlikely to raise rates again until their meeting in June.

Dovish Fed Will Support Risk Assets

A dovish Fed over the coming months is likely to have a number of effects on the financial markets. Already, the statement has caused gold to rally and this is likely to continue. Just as continued, highly dovish policy from the Fed fuelled the last long term bull market in gold, the current stance is likely to push the yellow metal higher in the near term.

We believe gold is likely to continue rallying from here, challenging resistance at $1150 and from the medium term downtrend line this week. Following this we believe the yellow metal has the potential to test strong resistance at $1180 and the long term downtrend. If this level breaks, we will look to initiate aggressive longs on gold.

However, gold is not the only market offering trades with positive risk reward dynamics. Equity markets are likely to benefit from a dovish Fed also. Stocks performed exceptionally well throughout the Fed’s QE programs, with volatility also remaining low during that time. Although the Fed’s stance is not going back to that which drove stocks continually higher, we believe that it is likely to cause equities to maintain their current levels and even give them the potential to bounce back.

A bounce will be largely technically driven at this point. The S&P has found a base at the support level of 1880 and the RSI has begun to rebound from oversold levels, but still shows stocks to be oversold overall. This means that stocks have the potential to rally and a base to do so from.

The key indicate that a bounce is likely is that the MACD is poised for a sub-zero bullish crossover. This has historically been a key indicator that a rally is imminent. The dovish statement from the Fed coincides with this to allow a bounce to take place from a fundamental perspective also. Therefore we will look to initiate a long trade once the crossover takes place.

Trading A Dovish Yellen

The exact details of our trades are available only to the subscribers of our premium service, SK OptionTrader. However, we can provide an overview of the type of trades we are considering.

We believe a bounce in stocks is likely to take place in the near term, and the most aggressive rallies in stocks follow selloffs. However, without a clear catalyst to cause conditions to improve it is much less likely that the ground gained on a bounce will be maintained. This means that holding an aggressive long term strategy has poor risk reward dynamics.

However, a quick play does have the potential to offer considerable returns with much less expected downside. Buying calls, or call spreads to reduce time premium costs, on SPY with strikes around $205 currently offer favourable risk reward dynamics. If stocks rally as we expect, then this type of trade is could outperform equities by ten times.

Regarding gold, we are considering aggressive long trades, such as buying calls on GLD, if the yellow metal breaks through major resistance at the long term downtrend line. However, there is still opportunity ahead of this. If gold fails to break higher through $1180, it is still likely to challenge the metal and remain high over the coming months. This means that selling downside protection offers favourable risk reward dynamics, which we discussed in much more depth in an article earlier this week.

If you wish to know the exact details of our trades and when they are executed, please visit sign up via either of the buttons below. For those considering subscribing to SK OptionTrader, please be aware that we are closing to new clients on February 20th to ensure that the quality of our service is not diluted. Therefore if you wish to become a subscriber, we recommend doing so sooner rather than later.

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Tuesday
Jan262016

Dovish Fed to Send Gold Higher

Gold and US real rates have long had an inverse relationship. Gold rallied to all-time highs while monetary policy was being made historically accommodative through quantitative easing. Then, as these measures were reduced and the Fed moved towards the beginning of a new tightening cycle a bear market in the metal began, leading the metal to almost halve from its prior highs.

However, gold failed to break to new lows when the Fed announced their first rate hike in December. When new employment data in January showed continued strength in the economy, making future hikes likely to come sooner, the metal again failed to break lower. Financial market mayhem has now made it highly unlikely that there will be more hikes in the medium term, which means that gold has no catalyst drive it lower. Instead, we believe that gold is in fact likely to have a major bullish catalyst this week: The Fed.

Why The Fed Will Not Hike

The rate hike last month was regarded by many, including us, as the beginning of a new tightening cycle for the Fed. However, since then we have seen market concerns around China's currency devaluation and the future of the inflation situation escalate significantly, leading to mayhem in the financial markets.

This turmoil alone is enough to stop the Fed from hiking again. During the correction last year the Fed chose to not hike rates at their September meeting. The Fed reinforced that the tightening of monetary policy would be with respect to market sentiment with this decision. Investors were assured that the Fed would keep monetary policy highly accommodative and that tightening would be gradual.

This means that the Fed cannot hike during times of tumult in the markets as to do so would cost them credibility, and thus their ability to signal to their intentions. Therefore, it is near certain that the Fed will choose to leave interest rates unchanged at their meeting this week.

Disinflationary Pressures Will See a Dovish Fed

While China’s currency devaluation should not directly affect the Fed’s monetary policy decision, the effects of the devaluation will. The weakening of China’s currency means that other currencies, and in particular the US dollar, are now stronger. This means that US exports are more expensive, which makes them less competitive. The result is that economic growth in the US has the potential to be severely hurt. If growth begins to slow, inflationary pressures will fall also.

The continued decline in oil is having an increasingly negative effects on the energy sector. A lack of expansion in the energy sector means that support companies, such as the industrials, are similarly hurt. The total flow on effects of this mean that the decline in oil is now having a considerably negative effect on the economy.

Without concerns around the future of the inflation situation the Fed has the option to take a dovish stance. However, this is not the only reason that they are likely to do so. Credit spreads have widened, which means that interest rates are effectively higher without a hike. This means that the need to raise rates now to combat future inflationary pressures has been significantly reduced, as the higher borrowing costs will have a similar effect that of a January hike by tightening financial conditions.

Considering the combined impact of both a disinflationary outlook and wider credit spreads increasing borrowing costs, we can see that the Fed is likely to take more dovish action than simply leaving rates unchanged. To ease concerns around inflationary pressures and to lessen the negative impact that wider credit spreads will have on inflation, the most prudent monetary policy action is to provide a dovish statement following this meeting.

What this Means for Gold

Given the long term inverse correlation between gold and US real rates and our view that the Fed will release a dovish statement this week, we gold is highly likely to rally. The question is, by how much?

Most markets have already priced in a no hike from the Fed this week. However, while other markets may price in key action from the Fed ahead of time, gold generally does not react until after these expectations have become reality. This means that although rates staying unchanged this week is largely priced in for financial markets, gold still has the potential to have this action priced in after it has been announced.

If the Fed releases a dovish statement, as we expect that they will, then the rally in gold is likely to be substantial.

Adding to this bullish effect from the Fed is the fact that gold is underpriced relative to bonds at this point. SHY, the ETF that tracks 1 to 3 year Treasury bonds, last closed at $84.75. This level corresponds to roughly $1150 gold, but the yellow metal is currently trading $40 lower. This means that even without a dovish statement from the Fed, gold has the potential to rally to at least $1150. Therefore we believe that gold has considerable upside potential from here and high probability of achieving it.

How to Trade the Rally in Gold

There are multiple vehicles available to take advantage of a post-Fed rally in gold. GLD is an ETF that tracks gold, but this lacks any leverage to the metal. There are many who are calling to get long gold stocks to gain leveraged exposure to the yellow metal, but we believe that this would be a poor use of capital.

If one held a bullish view on gold and believed that the metal was likely to rally following this week's Fed meeting, then it would be near contradictory to also hold the view that gold stocks will rally. The Fed will make a dovish statement if they believe the economic outlook is threatened. In this situation, stocks are likely to continue to fall, or at the least underperform, and gold mining stocks are much more likely to be sold off with equities than rally with gold.

We hold the view that the best way to gain leveraged exposure to gold is through the use of options. One strategy that we believe has particularly attractive risk reward dynamics is selling downside protection on gold. To execute this we are looking at selling March and April vertical put spreads with strikes around $100, which corresponds to approximately $1050 in gold.

These trades return between 15% and 25% if gold is above $1050 at expiry. Now, these returns are not astronomical, but the downside risk is very low here. If gold rallies after the Fed meeting this week as we believe it will, it is likely that the metal will move above support at $1150 to challenge resistance at $1180 and the long term downtrend. This movement makes it extremely likely that gold will remain above support at $1050.

Therefore we believe the risk reward dynamics on this type of trade are highly favourable at this point and as a result are our vehicle of choice. Should gold continue to rally higher and break through the long term downtrend line, then we will look to take a much more aggressive position on the metal, such as buying calls on GLD.

If you wish to know the exact details of our trades and when they are executed, please visit subscribe via either of the buttons below. For those considering subscribing to SK OptionTrader, please be aware that we are closing to new clients on February 20th to ensure that the quality of our service is not diluted. Therefore if you wish to become a subscriber, we recommend doing so sooner rather than later.

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Sunday
Jan242016

We are Closing New Subscribers on February 20th

Yes, that is correct, in less than a month the service with a return of 1358.82% since inception will be closed to new subscribers. The phenomenal success the SK OptionTrader service has acheived has resulted in substantial demand for the service, and as such we will close our doors by February 20th.

The history of each of our 166 profitable trades, as well as the only 16 losing trades, are available on our trading record. These trades have generated a massive total return of 1358.82% and a win rate of more than 90% over the course of our entire history, does your portfolio have similar returns?

If it does not, then you must ask yourself why you are not a subscriber. The SK OptionTrader service costs only $2.19 a day, less than a cup of coffee, and if one had invested a $10,000 portfolio in accordance with our signals it could now be worth $145,881.72.

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The demand for subscriptions has substantially increased and at a certain number of clients the quality of our service would become diluted. It is possible that we are rapidly approaching that number.

The current interest in our service indicates that by February 20th we will have reached the maximum optimal number of clients, and we will therefore close our doors to new subscribers at this point to ensure that our standards are maintained.

Should we reach our subscriber limit before February 20th we shall make our service unavailable to new subscribers then. If, for any reason, you are unable to sign up before our limit is reached, then you will be placed on our waiting list.

We cannot guarantee that you will be able to subscribe before February 20th, so we recommend subscribing sooner rather than later. 

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Monday
Jan182016

Gold Has Passed the Lows

We preface this article by stating that we are neither gold bears nor bulls. We traders and we target trades with the best possible risk reward dynamics, regardless of market direction. At the founding of our service, SK OptionTrader, we were bullish on the yellow metal and banked considerable profits as gold rallied to all-time highs. Beginning in 2013 we took a heavily bearish view, and again banked triple digit returns on gold as it declined. Now, we believe we have seen the lows and are preparing to get long gold once again.

Fear around the effects of China’s currency devaluation has led to turmoil in financial markets. Equities have sold off, bonds have rallied, and volatility has spiked. The medium term future of US monetary policy has been thrust into darkness as concerns around the economic outlook have risen rapidly.

As a result of the change in market dynamics we believe that gold has the potential to rally sizeably from here and that there is the potential for gold to challenge both the medium and long term downtrend lines. This means that the medium term lows around $1050 are highly unlikely to be visited in the coming months and we intend to take full advantage of that.

Gold has failed to rally on key bearish events

Gold and US real rates have long held an inverse correlation. When rates were cut and the Fed embarked on massive QE, gold rallied to all-time highs. Once the Fed implemented QE3 the economic outlook improved. This meant that more QE would be unnecessary and that the current measures would be tapered off. While this took place gold fell back from its all-time highs, entering a bear market in April 2013.

In December 2015 the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2006. This began a new tightening cycle and was accompanied with overall hawkish sentiment and dot projections that indicated the Fed expected another 100 basis points of hikes would be required in 2016.

This was the most hawkish monetary policy since action taken in nearly a decade and should have been heavily bearish for gold. However, the yellow metal failed to break through support at $1050 and did not even challenge the longer term support level of $1030.

At the beginning of this month the employment report showed that nonfarm payrolls had increased by a considerable 292,000 and that previous two prints were revised upwards by 50,000 new jobs. This is the type of improvement in economic data that the Fed would use as good reason to hike rates again. Therefore the print should have sent gold lower, as it made further hawkish action more likely. Yet, gold maintained its strength on the print and has failed to break support at $1080 in the week since.

What will drive gold down?

If gold cannot break to new lows on a hiking cycle and continued economic strength, then what will drive the metal lower?

Fresh ECB QE is likely to be bearish for gold for the same reasons that QE3 in the US was. However, the ECB is unlikely to announce new measures at their meeting this week. This means that the earliest likely target is their March meeting. Therefore before March 10th there is unlikely to be a major catalyst to drive gold down outside the US.

The next Fed hike has the potential to push gold lower, as it will drive home the point that rates are rising and that we are now in a tightening cycle. This means we must ask, when will the Fed next hike?

Given the current financial turmoil on the back of China’s currency devaluation, it is near certain that the Fed will not use their January meeting to raise rates again. The mayhem also means that March, which we had previously believed to be highly likely to hold the next hike, is much more uncertain with market pricing now shows the chance of a March hike to be just under 30%.

It is highly unlikely that shocks that cause other markets, such as stocks, to fall would cause gold to fall also. Gold is a safe haven asset, and therefore unforeseen events are much more likely to drive the metal higher than lower. Therefore, our bearish factors are limited to monetary policy. Given that major central banks are unlikely to take action that will be bearish for gold, there is no significant catalyst to drive gold lower this month, the next, and at least the opening weeks of March.

Does this mean gold is going higher?

Just as the lack of a bullish catalyst will not cause gold to fall, the lack of a bearish catalyst does not necessarily mean that gold will rally. However, in this case we believe that there are a number of reasons that lead us to the view that gold prices are heading higher.

Firstly, there is the discrepancy between bond prices and the price of gold. Bond prices have risen as the chances of a Fed hike in the next three months have decreased. Gold followed bonds higher initially, as per their long term relationship, but the metal has failed to continue the upward movement.

As a result, the current bond market indicates that gold is in fact heavily underpriced and should be much higher. Based on the last close for SHY, an ETF tracking 1-3 year Treasury Bonds, gold should currently be trading above resistance at $1150. However, Friday’s close puts gold at $1088.60.

This discrepancy is too large to be just noise. Therefore either gold prices must rally or bonds fall. For bonds to fall there would have to be an increase in the expected probability of the first hike coming sooner. This is means that concerns around China’s currency devaluation would have to dissipate, markets would have to calm and equities begin to recover. For this to all take place before the March FOMC meeting is highly unlikely.

A much more likely scenario is that concerns will persist for some time, and that markets will recover more slowly. This means that bond prices are much more likely to rally than fall from here. This in turn means that gold is likely to rally more than the $60 it is already under-priced by.

Therefore, the next $100 move in gold is higher, not lower, and is likely to take place inside the next two months. This means that the medium term lows are in and that it is time to get long gold, or at least cut any short exposure.

What is the trade?

There are a number of ways to access movement in gold. One could buy GLD, the ETF that tracks gold, but this is not the vehicle lacks any leverage to the metal. One could by gold stocks, but given the market dynamics there is a strong argument against this.

Suppose that one held the view that gold was going to rally due to continued financial market mayhem, as we have covered above. Then surely they must also hold the view that equities will continue to fall. It is much more likely that gold mining stocks will be sold off as a stock than bought into a rally as a gold vehicle. This means that overall gold stocks are a poor investment in the current market conditions and far from the best way to access the coming rally in gold.

We believe the best way to gain leveraged exposure to this rally in the yellow metal is through options. A fine-tuned options strategy here can be geared to take advantage of the exact market situation and gain significant leverage to gold while keep risk limited.

A strategy that stands out for us immediately is selling vertical put spreads on GLD. Our analysis shows that a bearish catalyst for gold is unlikely to be in play until March, so we will look to options with March expiries. We will now consider such a trade with strikes around $100, which corresponds to $1050.

If gold falls less than $40 between now and March when these options expire, then the trade will make its maximum profit. While this is not a heavily bullish trade and the upside is not astronomical, the trade still has very positive risk reward dynamics. Even if market conditions change rapidly and begin to recover, this trade is still likely to bank its maximum return.

We are also considering much more bullish plays if market dynamics continue to become more bullish for the metal. Should gold break through the long term downtrend line, currently just below $1200, then we will look to take advantage of the new bullish trend by opening much more aggressive positions. If you wish to see exactly when we execute these trades and how we trade rising gold prices in the future, please subscribe via either of the button below.

 

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